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Milwaukee's Daily Magazine for Friday, May 25, 2012

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In Sports

The key to a successful draft is a good strategy.

Fantasy preview, 2010: Starters and outfielders


As millions of TV viewers were bidding farewell to the Winter Olympics Sunday night, ESPN.com baseball writer Jayson Stark sent out a tweet with an encouraging thought:

"Here's a thought that ought to warm you up out there. This was the last Sunday without a baseball game to watch until Nov. 7. Play ball!"

Play ball, indeed.

As the Brewers and other teams get set to begin exhibition games, fantasy baseball owners are preparing for their drafts. We're here to help. In this installment, we'll look at starting pitchers and outfielders.

Included will be top 20 rankings at each position (Rotisserie mixed leagues = AL + NL), players who are rising and falling, and a few deep sleepers. To top things off, we'll throw in a few extra tidbits you should know as you continue to research these prime positions.

TOP 20 STARTING PITCHERS
1. Tim Lincecum -- San Francisco Giants: Although I worry about his durability due to his style of pitching, it's hard to argue against his almost 1.2 strikeouts per inning in his last 67 games over the last two seasons. Pair that with an ERA that has been below 2.65 and an average start of 6.8 innings per game rate and you have yourself the top ranked starting pitcher in any kind of format.
2. CC Sabathia -- NY Yankees
3. Zack Greinke -- Kansas City Royals
4. Roy Halladay -- Philadelphia Phillies
5. Adam Wainwright -- St Louis Cardinals
6. Justin Verlander -- Detroit Tigers
7. Felix Hernandez -- Seattle Mariners
8. Johan Santana -- NY Mets
9. Clayton Kershaw -- Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Dan Haren -- Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Jon Lester -- Boston Red Sox
12. Josh Johnson -- Florida Marlins
13. Chris Carpenter -- St Louis Cardinals
14. Josh Beckett -- Boston Red Sox
15. Tommy Hanson -- Atlanta Braves
16. Yovani Gallardo -- Milwaukee Brewers
17. Javier Vazquez -- NY Yankees
18. Cliff Lee -- Seattle Mariners
19. Matt Cain -- San Francisco Giants
20. Cole Hamels -- Philadelphia Phillies

TOP 20 OUTFIELDERS
1. Ryan Braun -- Milwaukee Brewers: Most outside of Milwaukee label him as cocky, or whatever choice words they can conjure. I call him confident, and when you're a confident hitter you're bound to swing a good bat. In the last three seasons, Braun has averaged 34 homers, 105 runs batted in, 16 stolen bases, and 174 hits. He also has a lifetime batting average of .308, a slugging percentage of .574, and has crushed 39 doubles in each of the past two seasons. Not only is he the best all-round hitting outfielder, you can rank him behind just Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera when listing the game's best pure hitters.
2. Carl Crawford -- Tampa Bay Rays
3. Justin Upton -- Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Jacoby Ellsbury -- Boston Red Sox
5. Ichiro Suzuki -- Seattle Mariners
6. Matt Kemp -- Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Adam Lind -- Toronto Blue Jays
8. Josh Hamilton -- Texas Rangers
9. Nick Markakis -- Baltimore Orioles
10. Matt Holliday -- St Louis Cardinals
11. Carlos Beltran -- NY Mets
12. Carlos Lee -- Houston Astros
13. Manny Ramirez -- Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Jason Bay -- NY Mets
15. Ben Zobrist -- Tampa Bay Rays
16. Jayson Werth -- Philadelphia Phillies
17. BJ Upton -- Tampa Bay Rays
18. Bobby Abreu -- Los Angeles Angels
19. Alfonso Soriano -- Chicago Cubs
20. Andre Ethier -- Los Angeles Dodgers

RISING, FALLING, AND DEEP SLEEPERS

RISING
Los Angeles LHP Clayton Kershaw
-- The Dodgers' flame-throwing 22-year old is a fantasy owner's dream, especially when it comes to strikeouts. Last season Kershaw, struck out 185 batters in just 171 innings. He also maintained an earned run average of 2.79. The bottom line here is that if the Dodgers hitters can give Kershaw better run support, and the youngster develops better consistency while staying healthy throughout the entire 2010 season, he will be a 15-game winner to go along with his 250-strikeout potential. In mixed leagues, Kershaw is being taken off the board anywhere between the fifth and seventh rounds.

Starters behind Kershaw include ...

Atlanta RHP Tommy Hanson -- Equipped with a wicked curveball, and standing tall at 6-6 the Braves' 23-year-old future ace has quickly made his way up the starting pitcher ranks. After June last season, he posted a 11-4 record and averaged roughly six innings per game and eight strikeouts per nine innings. You'll have to grab him before the eighth round, though, as he's becoming a hot commodity in fantasy.

Washington RHP Stephen Strasburg -- Normally, I'm a little hesitant about taking starting pitchers who haven't made a Major League start yet, but Strasburg is the real deal. His fastball can reach triple digits, and his slider is downright nasty. Yes, he plays for the Nationals, but he's a great pick for those looking for huge strikeout totals from a third or fourth rotation option in the middle rounds of mixed league drafts.

Colorado OF Carlos Gonzalez -- The Rockies leftfielder seems to be a star on the rise, and playing half of his games at hitter-friendly Coors Field will only help propel him. In 89 games and 278 at-bats, Gonzalez hit a cool .284, muscled 13 homers, drove in 29 runs and even stole 16 bases. As of now, he's projected to hit sixth in a Colorado lineup that features solid hitters in Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitski and Brad Hawpe swinging the lumber in front of him. Gonzalez can probably be had as a high-upside second or comfortable third outfielder between rounds 11 and 13 in mixed league drafts, and a few rounds earlier in NL-only leagues.

Not far behind Gonzalez are ...

Pittsburgh's Garrett Jones -- Jones can both play the outfield and first base and is a pure power hitter (21 homers, 82 RBI in '09). Double that up and you have a 40-homer hitter for cheap price in the middle rounds.

Minnesota's Denard Span -- Last season, Span stole 23 bases and hit .311. This season, he should hit around the same and punch between six and 12 home runs. More important, he could also double his steals total if free-swinging former Brewers shortstop JJ Hardy hits behind him, as some are projecting. Hardy has had a history of hitting into double plays, so you can bet when Span gets on base, especially early in games, he will swiping a few bases.

Baltimore's Adam Jones -- Although he didn't live up to the large expectations last season, the 24-year-old Orioles outfielder did put together a pretty good stat line, and fell just one homer short of 20 in an injury-shortened (ankle sprain) season. He still has big Justin Upton-like potential, but at the same time will carry a heftier price tag than the three listed above.

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