History shows No. 12 pick in NBA Draft is nothing special
The National Basketball Association held its annual Draft Lottery on Wednesday night, a bit of made-for-TV programming that is about as interesting as a turtle race.
Hopefully Bucks general manager John Hammond took the family to the Big Apple and built a vacation around the evening as he knew the Bucks would probably do no better than the pick – No. 12 – that they were projected to get coming in.
Milwaukee entered the night with a 93.55 percent chance of staying at 12 and actually had a greater shot at moving backward (3.89-percent to get No. 13) than making a huge leap lower in the June 28 draft.
The Bucks had only a 0.7 percent chance of landing the top pick, and a 2.54 percent chance of moving into the top three.
The formulas used to determined lottery odds have changed over the years, so in the current system the lowest seeded team entering the lottery to win the top overall pick was the Chicago Bulls, which jumped from No. 9 to No. 1 in 2008 and picked Memphis point guard Derrick Rose.
The old Charlotte Hornets franchise (now New Orleans) made the biggest leap under the current system, as they improved from No. 13 to No. 3 in 1999 where they picked point guard Baron Davis out of UCLA.
At the end of the season, Hammond was asked if the depth of this draft could compare to those of 1984 (seven all-stars) and 1996 (10 all-stars). He wouldn't go that far, but did concede that there was a breadth of talent that made picking at No. 12 somewhat comfortable.
"I think why people are saying that is because you have the real heavy pick at the top, supposedly, and then there's another grouping of maybe guys – I don't want to take the group too far – maybe it's two to five, two to six, a grouping of players there," Hammond said. "And then there's another grouping of players in our range, in that six to 12, 14 range.
"But the real interesting part that I think people are talking about in this draft and why it's interesting is because maybe you can get as good a player at 18 as you can 12. And that's not taking anything away from the 12th player. I think its saying what could possibly be there at 18. I think it's a very deep draft in that regard."
Hammond left the door open that the Bucks might move up or down in a draft day trade, depending on what scenarios play out and what players – like Orlando's Dwight Howard – force their team's hand with a trade demand.
"Size is something we're going to have to address and I'm not sure that's going to be at 12," Hammond said, before catching himself. "It could. It may not be. We do think adding little pieces along the way we can find a way to stay competitive and be more competitive, really."
If they stay put at 12, Hammond talked about adding a player who could contribute immediately off the bench.
"You sure hope so," he said. "You look at a late lottery pick, that's what you hope you get out of that to be honest with you. If you look at the history of the 12th pick, there are a lot of players that have made it, a lot of players that haven't made it, and maybe a handful of guys who are starters. But for the most part, what you're hoping is to get a strong rotation player at a pick like that and I think we can. If we can get a strong rotation player and a guy that can help us as we move forward next year, there you go, there's one more good piece for us that we think can help us make the difference."
In reality, the Bucks would be better off finding a way to trade the pick in a draft day deal that nets them a legitimate rotation player – if that's what they're looking for.
Hammond is right in saying that some former No. 12 picks have made it, and some haven't. But look at the following list of No. 12 picks since 2000 – you can't say you'd really expect any of these guys to be a key contributor to a winning team.
2000: Etan Thomas, Dallas
2001: Vladimir Radmanovic, Seattle
2002: Melvin Ely, Los Angeles Clippers
2003: Nick Collison, Seattle
2004: Robert Swift, Seattle
2005: Yaroslav Korolev, Los Angeles Clippers
2006: Hilton Armstrong, New Orleans
2007: Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia
2008: Jason Thompson, Sacramento
2009: Gerald Henderson, Charlotte
2010: Ed Davis, Toronto
2011: Alec Burks, Utah
Despite recent history, Hammond had to stay as positive as possible regarding that pick.
"I don't know if it's going to be the kind of deep draft that you look back in upcoming years and say that wow, now there's six all-stars in this draft," he said. "Can we get a rotation player at 12? I think we can. And who knows, maybe that guy could be a starter."
The odds say he won't be, which could make draft night all the more interesting for the Bucks.
The 12th pick itself isn't historically a strong pick, but there's been plenty of late draft picks that have all stars picked way after 12 including Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Tony Parker & Manu Ginobli. Bucks need to really do their homework on this one and find a player that can contribute. Please just say NO to Tyler Zeller. Carries all the big white stiff stereotypes as he's rail thin and doesn't look like he could body up Shaun Livingston in the post. Please go for the home run pick like Lamb or Perry Jones. Need this draft pick to be a player. Not another Joe Alexander out of the league in 2 years.
1 comment about this article.
Post a comment / write a review.
Disclaimer: Please note that Facebook comments are posted through Facebook and cannot be approved, edited or declined by OnMilwaukee.com. The opinions expressed in Facebook comments do not necessarily reflect those of OnMilwaukee.com or its staff.